Turkey preparing for Coup 2.0?

1. Michael Rubin @mrubin1971

December 16, 2016 3:37 pm | AEIdeas

Earlier this afternoon, I wrote about how the battle for control within the military is accelerating with one faction openly defiant of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Word out of Turkey suggests that Erdogan is taking the situation seriously.

Ankara, Turkey November 10, 2016. REUTERS/Umit Bektas.

Trolls operating on behalf of Erdogan’s political party (whom Erdogan openly encourages and supports) have started talking about killing anyone supportive of a coup or perhaps figureheads who might assume power in a transition. Many trolls have begun to target even potential rivals—men like former President Abdullah Gül or Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc who were always loyal to Erdogan but did not follow him blindly.

The police have reportedly sent letters to hotels in Ankara informing them that in case it becomes necessary to mobilize forces, the government might temporarily seize the hotels to quarter emergency forces. In short, if Erdogan seeks to mobilize—perhaps utilizing not only the emergency powers he claimed in the wake of the coup but also war powers derived from Turkey’s involvement in Syria and Iraq—he can arrest anyone and seize anything he desires. That he has started talking in terms of mobilization and drafts is not a good sign.
The strangest thing of the past few days is that even as Perincek openly defies Erdogan on Twitter and in speeches, Erdogan is uncharacteristically silent.
 

The instability may expand beyond Erdogan and elements more loyal to Dogu Perincek: One ex-police chief has also speculated that followers of Fethullah Gülen, thousands of whom have been purged, arrested, or dispossessed of their property, might also try to assassinate Erdogan. That is a charge Gülen’s followers would deny—they have said they eschew violence and deny the accusations that any top officials were involved in the abortive coup attempt—but the movement does have factions and many members who now have deeply personal grudges given the abuse and rape which have occurred in Turkish prisons.

The strangest thing of the past few days is that even as Perincek openly defies Erdogan on Twitter and in speeches, Erdogan is uncharacteristically silent. Either Perincek has shown that the sultan has no clothes or Erdogan plans to take actions which will be far more decisive than mere words or simple arrests and detentions.